Trendyol Reklam Müziği 2020


Expert Forecasts for 2020

Nations in the scientifically proficient group face a dynamic mix of problems. Promoting economic development and international commerce is often a top priority for countries with this level of S&T capacity but for very diverse reasons. The populations of China and India, for example, are quite large and continually growing. These countries urgently need to feed their many people, create jobs, and sustain wide-scale economic development. Yet while Poland and Russia have much smaller populations, economic growth is no less a concern. In the decade following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia has encountered considerable economic difficulties. Although its population is shrinking in real terms, unemployment is high. The exodus of Russian scientists, engineers, and other professionals beginning in the 1990s has weakened the country’s institutional and human capacity in science, health, and administra-tion. Poland, as a relatively recent member of the European Union, is in a very different situation: It needs to bring its economy in line with EU standards. What is more, the ability to acquire a technology application does not equal the ability to implement it. Doing research or importing know-how is a necessary initial step. But success-ful implementation also depends on the drivers within a country that encourage technological innovation and the barriers that stand in its way. Such drivers and barriers reflect a country’s institutional, human, and physical capacity;1 its financial resources; and its social, political, and cultural environment. Each of these factors plays a part in determining a nation’s ability to put a new technology application into the hands of users, cause them to embrace it, and support its widespread use over time. Of 56 illustrative applications that we identified as possible by 2020, 16 appear to have the greatest combined likelihood of being widely available commercially, enjoying a significant market demand, and affecting multiple sectors (e.g., water, food, land, population, governance, social structure, energy, health, economic development, education, defense and conflict, and environment and pollution). • Genetically modified (GM) crops: Genetically engineered foods with improved nutritional value (e.g., through added vitamins and micronutrients), increased production (e.g., by tailoring crops to local conditions), and reduced pesticide use (e.g., by increasing resistance to pests). We based its assessment on rough qualitative estimates of the size of the market for the application in 2020 and whether or not it raises significant public policy issues. The numbers in parentheses are the number of sectors that the technology can affect, and the designation global (G) or moderated (M) indicates our estimate, based on both the technical foresights and our discussions with RAND regional experts, of whether the application will be diffused globally in 2020 or will be moderated in its diffusion (i.e., restricted by market, business sector, country, or region).