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Expert Forecasts for 2020

In terms of improving public health, the same applications that the developing countries have the S&T capacity to acquire toward this end—cheap solar energy, rural wireless communications, GM crops, filters and catalysts, cheap autonomous housing, rapid bioassays, and green manufacturing—could help the proficient nations as well. In addition, these countries have the S&T capacity to acquire targeted drug delivery, which is likely to eventually become such a widespread application that it will enable cancers and other diseases to be treated on site in remote areas, with significant benefits to public health. Similarly, they will be able to acquire the same applications as the developing countries to reduce the use of resources and improve environmental health: cheap solar energy, rural wireless communications, GM crops, filters and catalysts, green manufacturing, and hybrid vehicles. Rural wireless communications, rapid bioassays, filters and catalysts, cheap autonomous housing, ubiquitous RFID tagging, and quantum cryptography would help these proficient nations strengthen their military and warfighters. Military command, control, and commu- The benefits would be the same as for the scientifically developing countries. Quantum cryptography could protect critical data and networks from hackers and attackers. In addition, targeted drug delivery, also obtainable by the proficient nations, could expedite responses to chemical and biological attacks and minimize casualties. If they can address multiple barriers to implementation, emerging economies, such as China and India in Asia and Brazil and Chile in South America, will be able to use technology applications to support continued economic growth and human development for their populations. Emerging technological powers China and India will have the best opportunity to approach the ability of the scientifically advanced countries to use applications to achieve national goals. The scientifically proficient countries of Eastern Europe, as represented by Poland, appear to be poised next in line behind China and India. In contrast, it looks likely that Russia’s capacity to implement technology applications will continue to deteriorate, with the most advanced of the scientifically developing countries (represented by Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Turkey) potentially overtaking her. 1 Institutional capacity includes honest and effective systems of governance, banking and finance, law, education, and health. Human capacity entails the quality and quantity of a country’s educated and skilled personnel, as well as the level of education and scientific literacy of its people. Physical capacity involves the quality and quantity of critical infrastructures e.g., transport and freight networks, schools, hospitals, research facilities, and utilities.