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Expert Forecasts for 2020

• Promote economic growth and international commerce. More-developed countries may also give these goals prominence on their national agendas but often for different reasons and with less urgency. For example, scientifically developing countries are likely to be motivated to implement technology applications that can help them use resources more efficiently and clean up pollution mainly for the possible economic benefits, with environmental gains a secondary goal or spillover effect. As long as their economies are sluggish and living standards low, countries on this rung of the development ladder will not be in a position to pay up front for the long-term health gains of prioritizing environmental issues. In many scientifically proficient countries, reducing the use of resources and improving environmental health is also among the most important objectives. Valuable assets such as arable land and fresh water—already scarce—are lost every day to land degradation, industrial pollution, and urban growth. In addition, many of these countries are at a level of development at which their populations are becoming increasingly aware of the high economic and health costs of environmental destruction and pollution. Global diffusion of a technology application does not mean universal diffusion: Not every nation in the world will be able to implement, or even acquire, all technology applications by 2020. The level of direct S&T capacity may be markedly different from one country to another. Within different geographical regions, countries also have considerable differences that play into their ability. These differences may include variations in physical size, natural conditions (e.g., climate), and location (e.g., proximity to oceans and water). The size of the population and demographics (e.g., birthrate) may vary dramatically between countries in a single region. Countries may have very different types of government, economic systems, and levels of economic development. • Ubiquitous radio frequency identification (RFID) tagging of commercial products and individuals: Widespread use of RFID tags to track retail products from manufacture through sale and beyond, as well as individuals and their movements.