Schuhtrend 2020 Damen


Expert Forecasts for 2020

Outside the capital, infrastructure is typically poor. Provincial areas commonly lack cheap and stable electricity, a clean and dependable water supply, basic health services, good roads, and schools. As a result, urban populations in many of these nations are growing rapidly as people flock to the cities in hope of better economic opportunities. Consequently, promoting rural economic development is usually a top concern, to reduce rural poverty, soothe discontent, and slow urban migration. Cheap solar energy, rural wireless communications, GM crops, filters and catalysts, and cheap autonomous housing could help scientifically developing nations promote economic development in rural areas, for the same reasons as in the scientifically lagging countries. Cheap solar energy, rural wireless communications, GM crops, filters and catalysts, green manufacturing, and hybrid vehicles could enable nations in this group to reduce the use of resources and improve environmental health. Again, the benefits would be the same as for the scientifically lagging countries. In addition, green manufacturing would diminish waste streams, allowing energy, water, and land to be used more efficiently; cut down pollutants in the environment; and reduce the burden on local governments of cleaning up polluted areas. To strengthen homeland security and public safety, advanced countries will be able to acquire rural wireless communications, rapid bioassays, filters and catalysts, targeted drug delivery, cheap autonomous housing, and quantum cryptography. In addition, ubiquitous access to information would facilitate information sharing and increase the ability to track individual’s activities. Pervasive sensors would provide governments with a powerful tool for law enforcement. Together with miniaturized communications devices, wearable computers could enable personnel to send and receive instructions in conflict situations. 4 We analyzed country capacity to implement technology applications by taking into account three factors: (1) capacity to acquire, defined as the fraction of the top 16 technology applications listed for that country in Figure 1; (2) the fraction of the ten drivers for implementation applicable to that country; and (3) the fraction of the ten barriers to implementation applicable to that country. Figure 4 shows the position of each of the 29 representative countries on a plot for which the y-axis is the product of factors (1) and (2)—i.e., capacity to acquire scaled by the fraction of drivers—and the x-axis is factor (3). (Multiplying capacity to acquire by the fraction of drivers is consistent with the view that the absence of drivers reduces the probability that the technology applications a country can acquire will be implemented.) Both axes are shown as percentages: The y-axis starts at 0 percent (i.e., no capacity to acquire technology applications or drivers) and ends at 100 percent (i.e., capacity to acquire all 16 technology applications, with all 10 drivers applicable). The x-axis starts at 100 percent (i.e., all 10 barriers are applicable) and ends at 0 percent (i.e., no barriers are applicable). This figure provides a first-order assessment of the capacity to implement technology applications, in that we applied equal weighting to all technology applications, drivers, and barriers. We recognize that specific technology applications, drivers, and barriers might be more or less significant in particular countries.