Expert Forecasts for 2020

• Promote economic growth and international commerce. • Strengthen homeland security and public safety. Many of the countries with this level of S&T capacity frequently put promoting economic growth and international commerce higher on national agendas than scientifically lagging countries typically do (but still usually much lower than nations in the proficient and advanced groups). Most of them very much need to manage urban migration, create jobs, and expand the middle class. For countries that are to some degree actively exporting products to the global marketplace (e.g., Chile and Mexico), increasing economic competitiveness is a real-istic development goal. Colombia is a clear exception in this regard; its economy is much less involved in international trade than most other nations in this group. The heightened politi- In terms of capacity to implement, China consistently has the most, followed by India, and then Poland. In every case, Russia trails, with the least capacity in the group to implement the relevant applications for any of the problem areas. As a whole, these countries have a fairly high capacity to put applications into practice to promote rural economic development and to reduce the use of resources and improve environmental health. Their ability to improve public health will be only slightly less than that. In the first two cases, China approaches the capacity level of several of the scientifically advanced countries, with India not far behind. Nations with the highest level of S&T capacity sit atop the development ladder. Their leading concerns are usually quite different from those of countries with less capacity because they have already achieved the more basic development objectives prerequisite to focusing on those goals. When a national priority is the same, a scientifically advanced country often has very different motivations from those of a lagging or developing one. Promoting economic growth and international commerce is a case in point. The nations in this group are already world economic leaders; their problem is usually to maintain or capture even more of a competitive advantage in an aggressive global market. South Korea, for example, has to deal with a China rapidly gaining S&T capacity and emerging as a commanding economic force. It also needs to gain ground on Japan, the United States, and other economic superpowers. Other advanced countries are contending with skyrocketing health costs. With rapidly aging populations, they need to increase the productivity of their future workforce to finance cutting-edge medical treatment.