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Expert Forecasts for 2020

• The relative slippage of Russia as a technological powerhouse • Reduce the use of resources and improve environmental health. nication could be improved with rural wireless communications. Rapid bioassays would allow military medical personnel to identify weapon-grade pathogens in the environment. Filters and catalysts could be employed in situations involving chemical or biological contaminants. Cheap autonomous housing could provide personnel on the ground with improved living quarters. The nations in the scientifically lagging group are able to obtain only five of the top 16 applications. Cameroon, Chad, and Kenya in Africa; the Dominican Republic in the Caribbean; Georgia in Europe; Fiji in Oceania; Egypt, Iran, and Jordan in North Africa and the Middle East; and Nepal and Pakistan in Asia will be the least capable of implementing these applications through 2020. With low levels of S&T capacity, these countries will also face numerous barriers and will benefit from very few drivers. It will therefore be very difficult for these countries to implement any but the simplest technology applications. 4 We analyzed country capacity to implement technology applications by taking into account three factors: (1) capacity to acquire, defined as the fraction of the top 16 technology applications listed for that country in Figure 1; (2) the fraction of the ten drivers for implementation applicable to that country; and (3) the fraction of the ten barriers to implementation applicable to that country. Figure 4 shows the position of each of the 29 representative countries on a plot for which the y-axis is the product of factors (1) and (2)—i.e., capacity to acquire scaled by the fraction of drivers—and the x-axis is factor (3). (Multiplying capacity to acquire by the fraction of drivers is consistent with the view that the absence of drivers reduces the probability that the technology applications a country can acquire will be implemented.) Both axes are shown as percentages: The y-axis starts at 0 percent (i.e., no capacity to acquire technology applications or drivers) and ends at 100 percent (i.e., capacity to acquire all 16 technology applications, with all 10 drivers applicable). The x-axis starts at 100 percent (i.e., all 10 barriers are applicable) and ends at 0 percent (i.e., no barriers are applicable). This figure provides a first-order assessment of the capacity to implement technology applications, in that we applied equal weighting to all technology applications, drivers, and barriers. We recognize that specific technology applications, drivers, and barriers might be more or less significant in particular countries.